Here we go. Like it or not, the Academy Awards will be given out once again this Sunday. Here are my predictions. Just a note, I’m not going to predict some of the more technical categories, like make up, costumes, etc. or some of the categories like Documentary, animated short, etc. because, frankly, I haven’t seen enough (or in some cases any) of the nominees. I’m going to stick to the major categories here.
But, here we go.
Animated feature: For the first time since the 2007 Oscars, Pixar will not be taking this prize home. “Rango” seems to have all the backing here. And, it’s considered more “grown up” than its competitors in this category. I actually enjoyed “Puss in Boots” more but I’m probably in the minority so “Rango” is the safe bet.
Special Effects: This comes down, in my mind, to a two film race. “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2” and “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”. I think this is going to come down to does the Academy feel the need to give the final Potter film any Oscars (which would be the first in the series). An argument can be made that Apes is more deserving, however and I think it will be tough for Potter to overcome that.
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer (Beginners). I’ve yet to see “Beginners” but Plummer has been pretty much sweeping all the major awards so far. Max von Sydow has gotten some great press from his role in “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close”, but unfortunately for him, it doesn’t look like he stands a real chance.
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer (The Help). As with Plummer, Spencer has been sweeping the big awards so far. I do have somewhat of a hope that the two nominees from “The Help” cancel each other out and that Melissa McCarthy wins for her role in “Bridesmaids” but that’s not going to happen.
Best Original Screenplay: A pretty interesting race here. “The Artist” has a lot of buzz in this category, despite it being mostly a silent film. It’s biggest competition will be Woody Allen’s “Midnight In Paris” (which, for the record, I feel is overrated). Again, I’d love to see “Bridesmaids” take this category, it was hilarious, but let’s talk about what really will happen. Take your pick between “The Artist” and “Midnight in Paris”. Frankly, I think if “The Artist” wins this category, it’ll win Best Picture for sure, but I think “Midnight in Paris” gets the nod here.
Best Adapted screenplay: “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” was a good film, but just lacks the buzz here. “Moneyball” was a solid film, just nothing special. I’d say that “The Ides of March” didn’t deliver to its full potential. That leaves this as a race between “The Descendants” and “Hugo”. I loved both films, but I’m going to go with “Hugo” because I have a sneaking suspicion it’s going to get largely shut out in the big categories.
Best Actress: This has seemingly come down to Viola Davis (The Help) and Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady). Which is a shame because both Glenn Close and Michelle Williams gave fine performances. But, I’m going to go with Davis here because, well, I don’t know too many people that liked “The Iron Lady” as a whole film. But, if Streep wins, don’t be surprised.
Best Actor: Again, it appears to be a two person race. George Clooney (The Descendants) and Jean Dujardin (The Artist). If either actor wins it won’t be a shock. I guess it comes down to does the Academy want to give Clooney a leading role Oscar to go along with his supporting actor or reward the relatively unknown (at least before “The Artist” came out). I’ll go with Clooney.
Best Director: Talk about a difficult race here. Alexander Payne directed “The Descendants” also directed “Sideways”. Terrance Malick (The Tree of Life) also directed “The Thin Red Line”. Woody Allen and Martin Scorcese, well, their careers speak for themselves and Michel Hazanavicius is a relative newcomer to Hollywood. This, I think is one of the most up in the air categories. The only one I’d be truly shocked to see win is Malick. That being said, I don’t think Allen is going to win. And, as much as I want Scorcese to win for “Hugo” I don’t think he will either. I think Hazanivicus for “The Artist” will win.
Best Picture: I really like “Hugo”. For my money, out of the nominees, it was my favorite film of the year by far. However, I feel like “The Artist” is going to win this one too.
Lukas Eggen can be reached at eggen.lukas@gmail.com.