Do we have our first big blockbuster of the year? Or do we have another flop?

Sam Raimi and Disney are hoping people will be off to see the wizard in big numbers as “Oz the Great and Powerful” opens. Drawing comparisons to Tim Burton’s “Alice in Wonderland”, this film stars James Franco, Michelle Williams, Rachel Weisz and Mila Kunis. Oz is a powerful brand with a bunch of books and the classic 1939 “The Wizard of Oz”. But Raimi and Franco aren’t as big as Burton and Johnny Depp. And I get the feeling that this won’t open nearly as big as Alice did. But this one could wind up near $300 million if word of mouth turns out to be strong. And this will have the biggest opening of the year so far and become the top grossing film of the year until summer rolls around.

Opening weekend: $80-85 million

The other new film is “Dead Man Down” starring Colin Farrell, Noomi Rapace, Dominic Cooper and Terrence Howard. It’s a strong cast, but a subdued marketing campaign and going up against Oz will make this one bomb. Also, the last few crime films, “Snitch” and “Broken City” both tanked.

Opening weekend: $5-10 million

Lukas Eggen can be reached at